Indian Economy & Terrorism
Thought Leadership | Knowledge Seeker | December 24, 2008 at 3:12 pmInternal dynamics and diplomatic responses are still evolving since the terrorist attack on India’s financial capital. Indian economy is not crumbling but a number of its supporting boulders have suffered major blow.
Some of the likely scenarios could be:
1. War
Highly improbable. No one, except the militants, would want it. Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee says India is keeping all options open, comments the Indian media have widely interpreted to mean that a military response is still possible, but Mukherjee says that was not his intent. He has said previously that war “is no solution.”
Tensions flared when Pakistan accused Indian warplanes of air space violations on December 13 and said its own fighter jets were scrambled. India denies any incursion.
Barack Obama’s incoming administration is expected to encourage settlement of the Kashmir dispute, a step it also sees as part of the equation to stabilize Afghanistan.
India probably realizes it’s better to engage Pakistan than ignore it in the long run, and it would like to help civilian leaders establish authority over the generals
2. No War, No Peace
There’s a real danger both sides could use non-state proxies to destabilize each others’ borders. It would be a return to the pre-2002 era, and the world will be haunted by periodic crises between the nuclear-armed neighbors.
That, in turn, will complicate the West’s efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. Some jihadi groups that had been fighting Indian rule in Kashmir have built ties with al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan’s ethnic Pashtun tribal belt on the Afghan border, which the Pakistan army is struggling to control.
3. Repercussions for India
The Indian government faces widespread voter anger at the security and intelligence failures that led to Mumbai. The opposition BJP has made it a major campaign issue and many analysts expect an election backlash against the ruling Congress party. But recent state poll wins by Congress, as well as the high-profile appointment of former finance minister as the new home minister, have helped take the wind out of the BJP’s sails.
The BJP has also been criticized in some quarters for being opportunistic in making terrorism an election issue.
The government has rushed through a tough anti-terror law, seen as a bid to allay public anger. So far, there has been no communal strife between majority Hindus and minority Muslims.
4. Repercussions for Pakistan
Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani’s offer on November 28 to send the head of the Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency to New Delhi following a request from Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh went down badly in some quarters of the military. But since then there has been no indication the civilian government and military leadership are out of step, even if they disagree on whether the militants should be protected or dumped.
If the crisis worsened, it might bring any differences into the open, risky for a young civilian government dependent on army support for Pakistan’s transition to democracy.
Mr. Mohammed Sha, Senior Business Consultant with convergys, offers the following solution
I think it is time the educated India demands a business-plan like solution from our Harvard educated, newly appointed Home Minister – P Chidambaram.
We need a clear plan as to how the Government plans to
1. Fire-fight such menaces faster and with lesser loss
2. Larger citizen involvement plan / citizen education plan to appropriately react and also proactively escalate what they observe
3. We want government to have a clear budget for this entire plan and show to public every fortnight the progress of the plan and the way each penny is spent
4. We want a Project Manager for managing this project
5. We want a clear plan as to how the defense forces and police will come together faster to show a faster controlling power of such situations
We want a business mindset in our government – after all they are accountable for every penny they collect from us.
High time Indian governance becomes accountable.
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